Import Substitution Methods in the Russian Investment Equipment Market
Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia(499)1293811, Russia, Moscow, 117418, Nakhimovsky Prospect, firstname.lastname@example.org
Relevance of the problem of import substitution in the investment equipment market of the Russian Federation. The questions of quantitative and qualitative assessment of the process of import substitution and the formation of an appropriate statistical base are considered. Methods for the quantitative and qualitative assessment of import substitution have been developed. We propose to consider import substitution in quantitative and qualitative aspects: an increase in domestic production in the domestic market, which helps to reduce the purchase of imported analogues (quantitative aspect); an increase in the production of domestic products technologically competitive in the domestic and world markets, a decrease in technological dependence and an increase in exports (a qualitative aspect, developing import substitution). For quantitative and qualitative assessment of import substitution, a set of indicators is proposed. Forecasting and analytical procedures are carried out taking into account a number of restrictions. The indicators can be used to assess import substitution according to the product range, for which the compliance of the grouping according to OKVED and TN VED classifiers is observed. The indicated restrictions regarding the discrepancy between the classifiers used in statistical accounting in Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service (FCS) make it difficult to assess the dynamics of import substitution as a whole for investment equipment. The developed methods were tested on the example of some types of investment equipment. Assessment of import substitution by the dynamics of the ratio of domestic and imported products was carried out on the example of products for sectors of the real sector of the economy (oil industry, agriculture and rail transport). The consistency of import substitution estimates obtained by the methods of quantitative and qualitative assessment confirms the effectiveness of their use in forecasting and analytical studies. The results were obtained with the financial support of the Russian Federal Property Fund, project No. 19-010-00031 “Analysis and forecasting of machine-building production in conditions of increased export and developing import substitution”.
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